How much would Abiy worth if his party loses in Oromia but wins the election in total?
The tricky relationship of Abiy, O-PP and A-PP
Whatever the outcome of the coming Election would be, the failure to transition Ethiopia to a democracy solely lays on the PM and his wing-men in Oromia and Amhara. And this failure is in part caused by neglecting the immeasurable value of the Bottom-Up approach. Instead of healing the disease entrenched in the EPRDF’s Cadre system that has been infected with an ignorant survival mindset, Abiy and his wing-men reinstated and strengthened it as a mechanism to safeguard their existence. What Abiy has done for the past three years was only trying to stream the so-called vision of “Medemer” top-to-down, rather than equipping the Cadre with the value of “merit” and with the understanding of the difference between “civil servant” and being a “power-wheel”. He could have empowered the Cadre with the knowledge and discipline to serve: which could have helped every Woreda level Cadre to see the Election other than a threat to his/her survival (salary, respect, and safety).
This particularly reflects what is happening in Oromia today. It is too late now to expect a fair election when those at the top depends on the Cadre to stay in power and at the same time the Cadre’s survival depends on winning the election at any cost. But reinstating the Cadre system and vanishing every other opposition to guarantee control of power is just one cause of the failure. At the beginning of the transition, some of us recommended members of EPRDF coalition should to put an “Expiration Date” for themselves to cease to exist as a political party in Ethiopia. Not only it could have prepared the Cadre and everyone to the top to relinquish power when the time comes, but it could have even helped to end the continued political struggle by providing a genuine hope for a democratic party politics. It might have also helped Abiy and his wing-men earn their reputation which was degraded by being mere servants of TPLF for three decades. Instead, they chose to engrave their name and regain their honor by striking down their “master” into dust and by eliminating other oppositions.
Here is more to it: the World thinks Prosperity Party (PP) – created by the merger of former EPRDF-affiliated parties – is a single party. They even tried to convince us, their own people, at the beginning that they are one and the value of their merger is immense for Ethiopia’s future stability.
Of course, it seems to be a single party legally, but it is not practically – never have been. They knew from the start that their intrinsic ethnical nature is and will be their ultimate power-base. To that effect, they chose to use a prefix to signify each regional branches of the new party, such as Oromia Prosperity Party (O-PP) and Amhara Prosperity Party (A-PP). (One may prefer to think the prefix signifies merely names of regions, but I respectfully argue naming of regions that way by itself had contributed in creating ethnic tensions in Ethiopia – because it was meant to signify ownership, thereby the right to solely possess or use.)
The ongoing open quarrel between O-PP and A-PP, which rather seems deliberate and part of their role play in ascertaining their respective ethnic power-base, can be taken as evidence of PP’s long-conceived intention to be seen as one and many at the same time. But there is also more to it: to guarantee political power at Federal level, they both need each other.
Setting aside how the transition come to reality and who else had other plans before the merger, both O-PP and A-PP (that is OPDO and ANDM) were not in a position to convince their constituencies as a genuine and impeccant options to lead the post-TPLF Ethiopia. Abiy brought a new “vision” which even surprised and confused his own comrades in OPDO, such as Lemma Megersa. Abiy, then, become indispensable to both, yet they were also significant for him to grasp the lead role sustainably. From that time onwards, what Abiy needed to do to stand high was just balancing the push and pull between the two groups. In fact, Abiy as well as the two parties themselves had already realized that they all need each other to survive and to tackle others on their way. (That does not mean one or more of them had Plan-B.)
Here is a scenario that may interest you: what if O-PP loses in Oromia but PP wins the election in total? It was a possible scenario, until all political parties in Oromia pushed out of the game a while ago. So, if O-PP loses, will Abiy still continue to chair PP or as Prime Minister of the coming new government? Will those in A-PP let him continue lead them without him or his O-PP contributing a single seat to the parliament? Will A-PP or other regional PPs still continue to uphold Abiy’s concept of “Medemer” or vision of “Prosperity”? How much will Abiy worth after losing Oromia? I will leave the answers to you for the time being.
One could state the same scenario applies for the two parties, though in legal terms there are no two parties but one PP. What if A-PP loses in Amhara region but PP in total wins the election? Will those currently leading A-PP claim to play a part, for example, at least at the Federal level? Why would Abiy or O-PP or other regional PPs care?
The relationship the three of them created upon themselves is not only strange, but could become tricky for an observer. When people think they are in disagreement or at times in an open conflict expressed via their official media releases, in fact one is strengthening the regional (mainly ethnic) power-base of the other. When O-PP denounces a protest or an opposition interpreting it as a threat against “Oromuma” which A-PP would not have allowed to happen, it is in fact trying to strengthen its own power-base in Oromia. On the other hand, when A-PP officially and aggressively accuses O-PP (which is formally nothing but A-PP itself) for the killings of Amharas in Oromia, it is indeed attempting to reassure that it still stands for Amharas and in return guaranteeing representation. Then, all of a sudden, Abiy comes out and tells the public “Ethiopia will never disintegrate!” – that he is there to make sure of it and that he is trying his best to wash away the evil in the other two.
Ironic, right? But never miss this: they know what they are doing; they just don’t know their doing may result in almost infinite consequences.
Both O-PP and A-PP are doing the same thing and they are not different in objective, except they are doing it differently. O-PP wiped out other oppositions in Oromia, which could have been contributed by the Oromo oppositions themselves. Forming one strong Oromo party and rebranding OPDO by lowering down other popular Oromo parties was originally an idea initiated by prominent #OromoProtest leaders, until later Abiy managed to vanish that strategy by expediting the merger. But Abiy and his O-PP didn’t stop there, they had to make sure no one contends them in Oromia and they seem to succeed.
A-PP, on the other hand, chose to rehabilitate itself and renew its name by embedding to and echoing on the relatively late comer Amhara nationalist sentiment. The challenge of A-PP was from within. Unlike in O-PP, the Cadres in A-PP have actually felt the dominance of TPLF even in their own party and were very angry for years on their own leaders as much as on TPLF. Even the National Movement of Amhara (NAMA) party did not come from nowhere; it mainly sprouted from the almost rotten ANDM itself. Until recently, NAMA was seen by many Amharas as just a back-stopper, as a necessary tool to straighten the leaders in A-PP whenever they start to wobble – but not as a viable alternative.
NAMA was too Amhara to take away the hearts of Amharas who were for long too Ethiopians. It was rather considered so relevant to make sure A-PP does not miss its path or end up being dominated by others once more and thereby fail to protect the interest of Amharas. In fact it was not long ago that even the party (NAMA) itself had long list of prerequisites for an election to happen in Ethiopia, let alone to participate in it. The major ones in the list were repealing/revising of the Federal Constitution and conducting population census before any election to take place in the country. Those prerequisites are gone now and NAMA has registered to compete in the coming election. What made it change course?
Apart from A-PP and NAMA, there are other entities who consider the Amhara region as their ultimate source of power – at least one cannot miss those veterans of the 60s that adhere the so-called “Ethiopianism” who have been seeking a way-in for reentering into the current politics and who may also finally succeed in snatching Balderas (the party) from Eskinder Nega and his friends. Considering this, NAMA may have seen an opportunity to actually come out as a viable alternative than a pacemaker to A-PP. On the other hand, all these could after all be the Plan-B of A-PP, though it is undeniable that NAMA’s actions and reactions have been instrumental for A-PP’s political game to keep the balance with O-PP on the original Plan-A.
Let’s go back a few months: during the war in Tigray and when the forces of Amhara took over the long disputed areas, such as Wolqait and Tegedea. It was apparently unconstitutional and O-PP officials were already denouncing it. But A-PP had to stand strong and stay in control of the lands, otherwise the loud voices and warnings from inside and outside and on the social media could have been deafening. Abiy kept quit until after months passed and spoke to the Federal parliament that the Amhara forces are there by his order. However, until that time and even onwards, A-PP seems to be questioning Abiy’s power and support even in his own region as well. In so doing, A-PP was further strengthening its power-base, but what was Abiy and O-PP contributing to the common goal of maintaining their respective power-base? In response to this challenge, the O-PP Cadres managed to call and show a number of public marches in support of Abiy Ahmed in Oromia cities. For many of us, those public demonstrations were difficult to comprehend given the country’s situation. But for the push and pull balancing game between the three of them, they were timely.
In general, the A-PP and O-PP forces know that they need each other. However, this only continues as long as each of them are in control of their respective regional power. As a result, Abiy’s O-PP chose to revive and strengthened the Cadre system, while A-PP chose to play along by trying to respond to the Amhara nationalism calls. O-PP had to wiped-out any other opposition in Oromia to make sure every vote goes to PP, while A-PP uses every opportunity to imitate and echo the voices from its oppositions and pacemakers in Amhara. Both of them never miss an opportunity to profit from violence, no matter who created it. Both of them act as enemies, because they think it contributes to make their respective power-base practically firm. Both of them try to install fear to their constituencies and appear as the only viable options to alleviate it.
In all these dramas, Abiy needs only to balance the pull and push between O-PP and A-PP. But how long will this continue? Probably until PP wins the coming election and then Abiy manages to change the form of government to that of Presidential – time will tell.
Finally, lets respond to the above scenario: What if A-PP loses in Amhara region but PP in total wins the election? It would mean losing to oppositions like NAMA, EZEMA, All Ethiopian Unity Party or others competing in Amhara region. Perhaps all these oppositions may share the seats in the Federal and Regional parliaments and that may turn out to be good to Amharas. Except the few on the top, members of A-PP may finally decide to leave PP and join, possibly, NAMA.
On the other hand: What if O-PP loses in Oromia but PP wins the election in total? Hand full of possibilities come to mind with regard to the fate of Oromia region given the continued Oromo struggle and the ungrateful Cadres’ survival instinct. But it is doubtful that Abiy will have a say on the new PP’s Federal Government. He may win a seat for himself in the parliament, but it would take him a whole new convincing proposal for the rest of the PPs to assign him as Prime Minister – and for that his past deeds may come to a measuring balance for the rest of regional PPs to judge. In short, how much would Abiy worth if O-PP loses in Oromia: Most probably, he would worth less for A-PP and other regional PPs. Again, time will tell!
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Picture Source: DW
Editor’s Note: This Article is written by a contributor of Ankuar.com and does not necessarily reflect the view and perspectives of the website and its Editors.
